Scenarios
UKCP18 presets are central estimates (50th percentile) under RCP8.5 for Wales, with seasonally-structured perturbations applied to the paper's Winter (Nov–Mar) and Summer (May–Sep) climatologies. The equilibrium framework resolves seasonal Delta-h equilibria but not within-year dynamical trajectories.
Climate (seasonal)
1.00×
1.00×
1.00×
1.00×
Winter = Nov–Mar. Summer = May–Sep. Slider range 0.5–1.5× brackets UKCP18 end-century probabilistic ranges for Wales under RCP8.5, while staying within the linear steady-state domain of the fitted state-space model.
C4 Main Forest
24%
C5 Coastal Forest
24%
Forest β₂ scaling (C4 + C5)
1.00×
1.00×
Atmospheric draw scaling for forest clusters. Applied identically to C4 and C5. Seasonal split captures deciduous phenology under broadleaf conversion (winter 0.87×, summer 1.09×).
Specific yield (storage)
Fetter
Fetter (lower bound): C1 8%, C2–C5 12% —
conservative literature values from Fetter (2001).
WTF (upper bound): per-well WTF medians (scripts 17/18), clamped to the cluster floor. Monthly WTF overestimates Sy through capillary-fringe conflation (Healy & Cook 2002), so these values represent an empirical ceiling.
Drives the Storage shift row (Δh × Sy, mm of equivalent water column). Does not affect Δh itself.
WTF (upper bound): per-well WTF medians (scripts 17/18), clamped to the cluster floor. Monthly WTF overestimates Sy through capillary-fringe conflation (Healy & Cook 2002), so these values represent an empirical ceiling.
Drives the Storage shift row (Δh × Sy, mm of equivalent water column). Does not affect Δh itself.
Map
All Δh values relative to 2005–2026 climatological mean (baseline era)
Groundwater surface — masked to site boundary
Interpretation note: The surface shown is an interpolated statistical estimate
(IDW, k=8 nearest neighbours), not a calibrated groundwater flow simulation. It reflects
the per-well steady-state response of the fitted state-space model to the selected scenario
perturbations. Spatial patterns between wells are smoothed; localised features such as
perched water tables or bedrock contacts are not resolved. See the Technical Note below and
the manuscript (Section 3.6) for full methodological detail.
Head by cluster
Cluster summary
Baseline monthly climatology (2005–2026, RAF Valley)
Monthly mean P and PET over the 2005–2026 monitoring period. Winter
(Nov–Mar, shaded) and Summer (May–Sep) bins correspond to the
seasonal multipliers above. UKCP18 2050s/2080s presets apply RCP8.5
central-estimate seasonal perturbations to these baselines.